Forum:2013-14 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season
Welcome Okay, this may seem early, but the 2013-14 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone has technically began. Anyone is welcome to post predictions regarding total activity here. Here are my predictions: South-West Indian Ocean: 15-15-13-6 (DIS,D,MTS,TC) (Mirana) Australian region: 14-12-6 (TL,TC,STC) (Kate, Alu, Bakung) South Pacific: 16-15-13-6 (DIS,D,TC,STC) (Victor) P.S. We missed a freak tropical disturbance that lasted from July 8 - 9 in the SWIO? Lindsay 2.0? AndrewTalk To Me 21:43, July 31, 2013 (UTC) Betting Pools Here. Ryan1000 16:28, December 31, 2013 (UTC) South-West Indian Ocean 06R.EDILSON Moderate Tropical Storm Edilson Another one in the SWIO, forecast to head south and out to sea, maybe becoming a cat 1 on the way. Ryan1000 11:48, February 5, 2014 (UTC) :This shouldn't do much, since the JTWC only makes it peak at 50 knots before dying out for good by the 10th. Steven09876 04:51, February 7, 2014 (UTC) Remnants of Edilson Edilson has dissipated. AndrewTalk To Me 13:07, February 8, 2014 (UTC) 07R.FOBANE Tropical Depression 11 Guys, we have a new depression in the SWIO! It's predicted to reach 60 knots while staying out to sea, so here comes Fobane! Steven09876 04:51, February 7, 2014 (UTC) : Officially TD 11 per MFR. It's now forecast to turn well away from any land. At best it might become a cat 1, but nothing more. Ryan1000 20:57, February 7, 2014 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Fobane Now at 45 mph, 992 mbars. Ryan1000 12:35, February 8, 2014 (UTC) : I just saw the JTWC forecast track and it looks like its moving very weirdly and and erratically while spinning fish out in open SWIO waters. It's one of the weirdest tracks I've seen in a while! Well, luckily it's not threatening any land, but since it's predicted to peak only at 45 kts, I'll call it an epic FAIL! Steve820 20:11, February 8, 2014 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Fobane Steve, I do not think I see Fobane as the same system. MFR has it at 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds)/977 mbar (hPa; 28.85 inHg), and the JTWC has it at 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds)/70 knot (80 mph) gusts. While MFR does not expect further intensification, the JTWC bumps Fobane up to 70 knots (80 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/85 knot (100 mph) gusts. So I would not call Fobane an epic fail, especially considering the intensity power outage the entire SHem has received since Colin and Ian. AndrewTalk To Me 14:14, February 9, 2014 (UTC) : Well, when I wrote my last post, the JTWC only took it up to 45 knots and I thought it would be an epic fail. Fobane must have gotten mad at me after I made fun of it and called it an epic fail yesterday lol. Now, it looks like Fobane won't be a fail at all! While the JTWC takes it up to 70 knots, I root for it to become stronger than that. It's still not predicted to threaten land at all, which means we can root for it to become as strong as it can! Steve820 19:50, February 9, 2014 (UTC) Remnants of Fobane It's been dead...for a while! Steve820 20:46, February 15, 2014 (UTC) 08R.GUITO Tropical Cyclone Guito It existed for a while already, forming on the 18th, and it already reached its peak as a Category 1 tropical cyclone too. Now, its just a weak 45 knot TS south of Madagascar, and it should be completely dead by the 23rd. Looks like everyone's been abandoning these forums, am I the only guy who's been tracking the SHem lately? I mean seriously, there should be at least some activity. Since the only thing that's been going on in these forums is dust gathering, and I'm getting bored of this forum, I'm also going to leave these forums starting today. I'll return to this wiki in mid-May when the EPac starts up and the NHem starts getting more TC activity, but for now...BYE EVERYBODY! I probably won't post on this wiki at all until May, but there's a chance I'll post if a massive Category 5 forms in the SHem or less likely, the WPac. I will still be active on the Hypothetical Hurricanes and Hypothetical Tornadoes wikis during this time, so look for me on those wikis. Steve820 00:10, February 22, 2014 (UTC) Remnants of Guito Guito is gone now. AndrewTalk To Me 14:00, February 23, 2014 (UTC) 21S.HELLEN Moderate Tropical Storm Hellen We have a new named system in the SWIO after a month of tranquility. Hellen, as named by RSMC La Reunion, is currently at 40 knots (45 mph) (10-minute sustained winds)/996 mbar (hPa; 29.41 inHg) per that agency and 45 knots (50 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/55 knot (65 mph) gusts per the JTWC. About 437 nautical miles from Antananarivo, Hellen should reach the intensity Fobane and Guito hit. AndrewTalk To Me 11:54, March 29, 2014 (UTC) Intense Tropical Cyclone Hellen Apparently, Hellen read my post, and she chose to prove me wrong! We now have a bonafide intense tropical cyclone in the Mozambique Sea when we just had an innocent moderate tropical storm 24 hours earlier. She is at 105 knots (120 mph) (10-minute sustained winds)/948 mbar (hPa; 27.99 inHg) per RSMC La Reunion and at 90 knots (105 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/110 knot (125 mph) gusts per the JTWC. The JTWC expects Hellen to become a moderate Category 4 cyclone. Watch out, Madagascar and Mozambique! Someone drunk the Mountain Dew! AndrewTalk To Me 12:14, March 30, 2014 (UTC) : Holy shit, this thing peaked at 150 mph when it hit Madagascar last night, that was a nasty, unexpected surprise for the folks there. 10-minute sustained, they were 145 mph, but that's still incredibly strong. It's weaker now, down to cat 2, and forecast to head west and weaken to a tropical storm when it hits Mozambique in 3 or 4 days. Ryan1000 16:48, March 31, 2014 (UTC) Remnants of Hellen And as fast as she rose, she crashed down like a bomb. Hellen is now dead per MFR and at 85 knots (100 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/105 knot (120 mph) gusts per the JTWC. The cyclone should hit Mozambique at borderline tropical storm/tropical depression intensity per the JTWC and at tropical depression intensity per MFR. According to MFR, Hellen is one of the most intense Mozambique Channel cyclones on record. AndrewTalk To Me 23:03, March 31, 2014 (UTC) : Whoa, that storm did quite a show there. I can't believe that a storm would rapidly intensify to become one of the most powerful storms in the Mozambique Channel ever recorded, and then crash down like a bomb after landfall after only a few days of life! Hopefully it wasn't too bad for the guys who live in Madagascar. Steve820 00:52, April 1, 2014 (UTC) ::I've been tracking this system and I'm fairly certain that the low level circulation never touched land. It collapsed just off shore leaving the middle level circulation to cross into Madagascar. So it never made landfall... Supportstorm (talk) 12:15, April 1, 2014 (UTC) :::Hellen's remnants are hovering over northwestern Madagascar. Per the JTWC, her intensity is at 25 knots (30 mph)/1002 mbar (hPa). In a while, the cyclone will continue tracking over the Mozambique Channel and reach Mozambique. The JTWC gives Hellen a low chance of regeneration in the next 24 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 17:55, April 1, 2014 (UTC) ::::Hellen's remnants continue to hover over the Mozambique Channel near Madagascar. They should begin moving westwards shortly. Eight fatalities have been reported from the cyclone, with an additional nine missing. AndrewTalk To Me 12:16, April 2, 2014 (UTC) :::::With low vertical wind shear and a well-defined low level circulation, Hellen's remnants are poised to regenerate as they close down on the mainland African coast. Per JTWC - Current intensity: 20 to 25 knots (25 to 30 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/1004 mbar (hPa). Chance of regeneration in the next 24 hours - medium. AndrewTalk To Me 00:52, April 4, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Hellen's remnants have dissipated over the Mozambique Channel. AndrewTalk To Me 11:44, April 4, 2014 (UTC) 22S.IVANOE 96S.INVEST According to the NRL and JTWC, a new invest has developed near Diego Garcia. Its estimated current intensity is at 15 knots (15 mph)/1007 mbar (hPa), and most of the dynamic models forsee a tropical cyclone developing in the next 48 to 72 hours. The JTWC gives the invest a low chance of formation in the next 24 hours, however. AndrewTalk To Me 17:55, April 1, 2014 (UTC) :Albeit a marginal wind shear environment, most dynamic now predict tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 to 72 hours per the JTWC. Its chance of formation per the agency remains low for the next 24 hours, however. AndrewTalk To Me 12:16, April 2, 2014 (UTC) ::As Invest 96S's LLCC consolidates and deep convection starts organizing, most dynamic models foresee tropical cyclone development in 48 to 72 hours. Per JTWC: Current intensity - 20 to 25 knots (25 to 30 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/1004 mbar (hPa). Chance of formation in the next 24 hours - medium. AndrewTalk To Me 00:52, April 4, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Disturbance 15 The MFR has issued its first bulletin on Tropical Disturbance 15 well southeast of Diego Garcia. Their current intensity for the system is 25 knots (30 mph) (10-minute sustained winds)/999 mbar (hPa; 29.50 inHg). Unfortunately, things do not look to pretty for its future. MFR predicts a peak of only 40 knots (45 mph) (10-minute sustained) before turning extratropical. Meanwhile, the JTWC has issued a TCFA, owing to a well-defined and consolidating LLCC. In addition, low vertical wind shear lays ahead of Invest 97S. Current intensity per JTWC: 25 to 30 knots (30 to 35 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/1002 mbar (hPa). AndrewTalk To Me 11:44, April 4, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone 22S The MFR has upgraded Tropical Disturbance 15 to a tropical depression due to increasing organization near the system's center. Its intensity has been upgraded to 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds)/997 mbar (hPa; 29.44 inHg), but it should not get much further. MFR has lowered the depression's forecast peak to 35 knots (40 mph) (10-minute sustained winds) due to its large size and increasingly hostile environment surrounding it. Also, the JTWC have now classified Invest 97S as Tropical Cyclone 22S with winds of 35 knots (40 mph) (1-minute sustained) gusting to 45 knots (50 mph). Due to increasing vertical wind shear, the JTWC also have a rather low standard for the cyclone, predicting a peak intensity of 45 knots (50 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) with gusts of 55 knots (65 mph) before transitioning into an extratropical cyclone while tracking along the westerlies. AndrewTalk To Me 21:46, April 4, 2014 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Ivanoe According to the MFR, Tropical Depression 15 has attained gale-force winds and become a moderate tropical storm, prompting the agency to name the cyclone Ivanoe. Currently, Moderate Tropical Storm Ivanoe is at an intensity of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds)/991 mbar (hPa; 29.26 inHg) per MFR. Due to increasing vertical wind shear, a lack of organization, and a steering subtropical ridge, Ivanoe is expected to become extratropical within 12 hours, get steered by the ridge, and merge with a trough on Monday. As for the JTWC, they report Ivanoe's intensity at 40 knots (45 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) gusting to 50 knots (60 mph). Slight intensification is expected in the next 12 hours to 45 knots (50 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/55 knot (65 mph) gusts before decreasing SST's and interaction with a mid-latitude system prompt extratropical transition in roughly 48 hours. Enjoy Ivanoe while he lasts! AndrewTalk To Me 13:20, April 5, 2014 (UTC) : Looks like Ivanoe will epically fail. Really? I wanted the name to go to a powerful beast, but instead it goes to a big weakling. Steve820 20:50, April 5, 2014 (UTC) Australian Region First part archived. Ryan1000 16:24, December 31, 2013 (UTC) :Come on, me, I'm waiting on me! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lists_of_tropical_cyclone_names#Australia --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 06:54, January 19, 2014 (UTC) Darwin Tropical Low TCWC Darwin Tropical Low TCWC Darwin has reported a tropical low developing over a Top End monsoon trough. It has a current pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg). No comment yet from the JTWC. AndrewTalk To Me 12:55, January 24, 2014 (UTC) : Hey Dylan, here comes your storm! :D ;) Steven09876 01:49, January 25, 2014 (UTC) :: I can't wait to see what the storm named Dylan 'will do. Will it develop from this tropical low? Steven09876 01:53, January 25, 2014 (UTC) Remnants of TCWC Darwin Tropical Low And...this tropical low degenerated without ever even receiving a number. AndrewTalk To Me 20:31, January 27, 2014 (UTC) 07U.DYLAN See here. AndrewTalk To Me 12:53, January 26, 2014 (UTC) OMG IM ACTUALLY WETTING MY PANTS RIGHT AT THIS MOMENT there is a storm named after dylan? WELL IMMA RING IN BOB! “i liek turtlez 21:47, January 30, 2014 (UTC) Or Karen. AndrewTalk To Me 12:03, January 31, 2014 (UTC) : Dylan's mom's name? That isn't really important compared to if somebody on this wiki had a cyclone named after them, but I guess it's cool enough! And also remember how much that storm epically failed? It didn't even make it to the Gulf Coast tropical! Steven09876 23:44, January 31, 2014 (UTC) 09U.NONAME TCWC Darwin Tropical Low Per TCWC Darwin, a 1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg) tropical low has developed near Top End, Australia. AndrewTalk To Me 12:03, January 31, 2014 (UTC) : Here comes Edna! Steven09876 23:44, January 31, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Low 09U This tropical low, now numbered ''09U by the BoM, made landfall over Australia. At a current intensity of 45 km/h (20 knots, 27 mph) (10-minute sustained winds)/997 mbar (hPa; 29.44 inHg), it is expected to move back over water and become a Category 1 tropical cyclone. The JTWC reports an overall weak structure yet increasing development potential from Tropical Low 09U and gives it a low chance of becoming tropical in the next 24 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 14:25, February 2, 2014 (UTC) :Tropical Low 09U is still active, with a pressure of 993 mbar (hPa; 29.32 inHg). It is currently over northern Australia, and it is expected to receive a name once it reemerges over water. (Andrew wrote this) ::Tropical Low 09U is no longer expected to move over water or receive a name per the BoM. The agency has its pressure at an insane 988 mbar (hPa; 29.18 inHg), which is lower than Alessia, Edna, and Fletcher's minimum pressures. The JTWC, owing to its poor organization, gives the cyclone a low chance of becoming tropical per their standards. AndrewTalk To Me 14:17, February 9, 2014 (UTC) 08U.FLETCHER TCWC Perth Tropical Low TCWC Perth has reported the formation of a tropical low with a pressure of 999 mbar (hPa; 29.50 inHg) near the Browse Basin. The JTWC reports a weak organization structure and gives it a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 24 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 14:25, February 2, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Fletcher This tropical low became Cyclone 08U (Fletcher) before dissipating. Ironically, Fletcher outlasted Edna. AndrewTalk To Me 13:15, February 8, 2014 (UTC) :Fletcher apparently moved erratically over northern Australia, bringing lots of rain and possibly lots of flash flooding. Hopefully it wasn't too bad. Steve820 19:57, February 8, 2014 (UTC) 10U.EDNA Due to the short-lived nature of Cyclone Edna, no posts were made on the system. AndrewTalk To Me 14:25, February 2, 2014 (UTC) :Wow, this is one of the biggest name wastes I've ever seen! Even though it did affect Queensland a bit, it's still an epic fail/name waster. Enough said. Steven09876 22:18, February 2, 2014 (UTC) :::It's actually still alive in the SPac by now, moving over New Caledonia then out to sea. ''Ryan1000'' 11:51, February 5, 2014 (UTC) Remnants of Edna It's dead. I'm surprised it lasted this long, especially after Andrew's message put me in that fail attitude. I guess Edna wasn't the massive fail I thought, but still pretty pathetic. Steven09876 04:45, February 7, 2014 (UTC) 91P.INVEST TCWC Darwin Tropical Low TCWC Darwin has reported the formation of a new tropical low over the Gulf of Carpentaria. It has a pressure of 1003 mbar (hPa; 29.62 inHg) per the agency. NRL has this system as Invest 91P, with an intensity of 15 knots (15 mph)/1010 mbar (hPa). AndrewTalk To Me 14:07, February 23, 2014 (UTC) 13U-20F.HADI Tropical Cyclone Hadi This storm actually existed before Gillian, but didn't become named until now. Forecast to head northeast out towards the islands of the South Pacific. ''Ryan1000'' 02:23, March 11, 2014 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Hadi Dead. ''Ryan1000'' 04:04, March 12, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Disturbance 20F (Hadi) Hadi has regenerated as Tropical Disturbance 20F in the SPAC. RSMC Nadi has this storm with a pressure of 1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg). The JTWC has not commented on the system yet. (post left by Andrew) Remnants of Hadi (2nd time) Okay, where is everyone? Hadi, after looping back and forth in the SPAC, moved back into the Australian region and dissipated. AndrewTalk To Me 22:23, March 22, 2014 (UTC) 14U.GILLIAN Tropical Cyclone Gillian Currently in the gulf of Carpentaria, forecast to slowly move southwest in the gulf before making landfall by Tuesday. ''Ryan1000'' 02:35, March 9, 2014 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Gillian Made landfall and died. ''Ryan1000'' 04:04, March 12, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Gillian (2nd time) Gillian has regenerated in the Gulf of Carpentaria. It is at 35 knots (40 mph) (10-minute sustained winds)/999 mbar (hPa) per the BoM. The JTWC has issued a TCFA in anticipation of Gillian's revival. AndrewTalk To Me 01:42, March 15, 2014 (UTC) Severe Tropical Cyclone Gillian Have we all ditched this wiki? Gillian is now an 80 knot (90 mph) (10-minute sustained winds)/966 mbar (hPa; 28.53 inHg) severe tropical cyclone per the BoM, and should reach Australian Category 4 intensity. The JTWC pegs the cyclone at 90 knots (105 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) gusting to 110 knots (125 mph). By the way, if anyone else has noticed, this year's Australian region storms have been weak in intensity but lasted for insane amounts of time. Cases in point: Alessia lasted 11 days, 06U persisted for 13, Fletcher lasted 13, 09U for 12, a late February tropical low for 14, Hadi for 23, and Gillian 16. And only Gillian exceeded Australian Category 1 intensity. AndrewTalk To Me 22:23, March 22, 2014 (UTC) :Gillian has effectively pulled an Ophelia (2011 ATL). After two weeks of struggle, the cyclone had reached Category 4 intensity on both the AUS region and SSHS scales. Current intensity: 90 knots (105 mph) (10-minute sustained winds)/960 mbar (hPa; 28.53 inHg) per the BoM, and 110 knots (125 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/135 knot (155 mph) gusts per the JTWC. AndrewTalk To Me 11:23, March 23, 2014 (UTC) :::Lost attention for this wiki for a while, but I never thought Gillian would do such a thing that it did over the past week. It hit Australia, turned around and crossed southern Indonesia, and now became a cat 5 over open waters? Yep, this one wins the strangest SHem storm award this year. This is pretty damn impressive. At least it's not affecting land at it's peak. ''Ryan1000'' 15:39, March 24, 2014 (UTC) Post-tropical cyclone Gillian And it has quickly degenerated. This storm was one of the weirdest storms I've ever seen in my life! It erratically moved around northern Australia, before moving into Indonesia, and after that, it moved into the Indian and rapidly strengthened to a Category 5! And not to mention its longevity, which was very insane! Steve820 00:38, March 27, 2014 (UTC) 23P.ITA Tropical Low A new tropical low with an ill-defined convection has been identified. The JTWC has designated the system Invest 97P, and some development of this low is expected in the next 48 to 72 hours. For the while, Invest 97P has a low chance of becoming tropical in the next 24 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 17:55, April 1, 2014 (UTC) :It is looking likely the JTWC will classify this low. Near the Solomon Islands, deep convection is wrapping into the cyclone's consolidating low-level circulation center (LLCC). Additionally, it is in a favorable development environment with low wind shear. Consequently, the JTWC now gives Invest 97P a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 24 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 12:22, April 2, 2014 (UTC) ::A new tropical depression per the JTWC is almost certain. With a low wind shear environment surrounding it and persistent deep convection evident, a TCFA has been issued for Invest 97P. Current intensity: 25 to 30 knots (30 to 35 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/1001 mbar (hPa). AndrewTalk To Me 00:44, April 4, 2014 (UTC) :::As Invest 97P continues to move away from the Solomon Islands, its LLCC should continue to consolidate. A TCFA remains in effect. AndrewTalk To Me 11:34, April 4, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone 23P The JTWC has classified Invest 97P as Tropical Cyclone 23P due to deep convection over the eastern flank of its LLCC. Albeit an exposed western LLCC, the system is producing winds of 35 knots (40 mph) (1-minute sustained) gusting to 45 knots (50 mph). Owing to low wind shear, as Cyclone 23P tracks along the northern edge of a subtropical ridge, gradual intensification is forecast, with a peak of 75 knots (85 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/90 knot (100 mph) gusts expected as it nears Queensland. AndrewTalk To Me 21:55, April 4, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Ita Based on a curved banding pattern in this tropical low (dubbed 15U by the BoM), Dvorak estimates have helped the BoM upgrade the low into Category 1 Tropical Cyclone Ita. Currently, its assessed intensity is at 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds)/997 hPa (mbar; 29.44 inHg). Ita is expected to move along the periphery of a Coral Sea subtropical ridge for the next few days, along with a temporary halt in movement from a trough exiting western Australia. With low vertical wind shear, the cyclone should have no problem reaching severe tropical cyclone intensity by Monday per the BoM forecast track until wind shear comes in. Meanwhile, on the JTWC side, improving deep convection and a consolidating LLCC have helped the agency pinpoint Ita's intensity - 45 knot (50 mph) winds (1-minute sustained) with gusts of 55 knots (65 mph). Like the BoM, Ita is expected to move alongside the subtropical ridge and gradually intensify to a peak of 80 knots (90 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/100 knot (115 mph) gusts due to low vertical wind shear. Stay safe from Ita, Australia! She and her WPAC twin could cause a lot of trouble! AndrewTalk To Me 13:33, April 5, 2014 (UTC) : Oh no, Australia could get a big beating from this storm. Stay safe Australia! As a tropical low, she has already caused 16 deaths in the Honiara area from flash flooding, hopefully Australia will make it out safe... Steve820 20:54, April 5, 2014 (UTC) South Pacific Basin 15F.KOFI Tropical Depression 15F Finally, another one in the SPac. Currently east of Fiji, forecast to head south, becoming a cat 1 or 2 on the way. ''Ryan1000'' 21:26, February 28, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Kofi And now it's named. ''Ryan1000'' 11:58, March 1, 2014 (UTC) Post-tropical cyclone Kofi Dead. Impacts likely weren't too severe. ''Ryan1000'' 00:10, March 5, 2014 (UTC) 16F.LUSI Tropical Cyclone Lusi Northeast of Hadi, forecast to become a cat 1 as it heads east, then south towards New Zeland. ''Ryan1000'' 02:23, March 11, 2014 (UTC) Post-tropical Cyclone Lusi Dead. ''Ryan1000'' 23:32, March 14, 2014 (UTC) 19F.MIKE Tropical Disturbance 19F A new system is up about 100 miles from Pago Pago. Although there is no word from the JTWC, RSMC Nadi gives the system a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg). AndrewTalk To Me 01:42, March 15, 2014 (UTC) Remnants of Mike Can we please check here more often?! We missed Mike almost completely! AndrewTalk To Me 22:23, March 22, 2014 (UTC) 20F.NONAME See here. AndrewTalk To Me 01:42, March 15, 2014 (UTC) 98P.INVEST 98P.INVEST An unusual subtropical cyclone is currently located south-southeast of Pago Pago. With dry air wrapping into the system, it has winds of 50 knots (60 mph) (1-minute sustained) and a pressure of 988 mbar (hPa), which is lower than both June and Mike's peak pressures. Although the JTWC only gives the system a low chance of becoming tropical in the next 48 hours, it will be extremely interesting to follow this system. AndrewTalk To Me 17:55, April 1, 2014 (UTC) :Despite an extremely unusual organization, the subtropical cyclone is in a warm anomaly zone. However, strong wind shear is also persistent, giving the JTWC a medium chance of development in the next 24 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 12:26, April 2, 2014 (UTC) ::This quasi-tropical storm is losing the battle. SST's have dropped a few degrees, and it should crash into New Zealand within a few days. Per JTWC - Current intensity: 40 to 45 knots (45 to 50 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/988 mbar (hPa). Chance of formation in the next 24 hours: down to low. AndrewTalk To Me 00:47, April 4, 2014 (UTC) :::This cyclone looks extremely subtropical on satellite imagery. As it continues to head towards New Zealand, it should maintain gale-force winds and subtropical characteristics. Everything else remains the same per the JTWC. RSMC Nadi has not acknowledged this system yet. AndrewTalk To Me 11:48, April 4, 2014 (UTC) ::::Still nothing much new from either RSMC Nadi or the JTWC. I doubt it will develop at all now. AndrewTalk To Me 21:56, April 4, 2014 (UTC) :::::Still expected to smash into New Zealand per the JTWC... AndrewTalk To Me 13:35, April 5, 2014 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Well, I usually wait four storms to start this section, and it now looks like I can (even if only a couple names deserve retirement). My predictions: #Alessia (AUS) - 10% - Rainfall in the Gulf of Carpentaria was a little heavy, but that is contrasted by Alessia's lack of damage elsewhere. I usually give a storm like Alessia a 1%, but considering how lenient Australia is on retirement... #Amara (SWIO) - 0% - Name cannot be retired. #Bruce (AUS) - 5% - Bruce did produce some small effects on Indonesia and Cocos Islands, but those will very likely not earn it retirement, especially if no damages or deaths were reported. The stunt Bruce performed of reaching Category 5 intensity after crossing into the SWIO will not get it the boot either. #'''Christine (AUS) - 70% - I may be going a little overboard here, but the city of Wickham in Australia considers this storm the worst storm in recent memory, and further down south, record heat was caused. Moomba nearly broke their record high, and a fire ban was issued for all of Southern Australia. Despite not causing any deaths or damage, this is Australia we are talking about, and if Rusty last year got the boot, Christine may have a decent chance as well. #Bejisa (SWIO) - 0% - See Amara. #'Ian (SPAC) - 60%' - Whole homes in Tonga have been flattened. We have a good retiree right here. #Colin (SWIO) - 0% - See Amara and Bejisa. #Deliwe (SWIO) - 0% - You get the point now... #June (SPAC) - 5% - June did affect a variety of landmasses, but all of them reported only very minimal impact from the storm. Being a basin crosser does not really help here. #Dylan (AUS) - 15% - Although Dylan was a very weak storm, the damage it caused rivals Alessia's. Normally, I would give a storm like Dylan 1%, but knowing Australia... #Edna (AUS) - 5% - Edna did affect Queensland. Now, this is the Australian region, but I think even Australia would know better to retire this. #Fletcher (AUS) - 10% - Fletcher is basically a repeat of Alessia. #Kofi (SPAC) - 20% - Central and Eastern Fiji did get nailed by Kofi. Many homes have been submerged, but I am not sure if Kofi's impact is severe enough for retirement. #Hadi (AUS) - 5% - Despite affecting the Solomon Islands and Queensland, Hadi is most likely staying. #Gillian (AUS) - 25% - Gillian had plenty of effects in Australia, not to mention its erracticness. #Lusi (SPAC) - 15% - Lusi has affected a variety of regions and killed three. #Mike (SPAC) - 1% - Not too much impact from Mike. #Ita (AUS) - TBA - Still Active AndrewTalk To Me 13:42, January 6, 2014 (UTC) Knowing Australia, Christine is definitely going to be retired, but I don't expect anything else to go as of yet. Ryan1000 14:19, January 6, 2014 (UTC) :Hey Andrew, you don't have to include every single SWIO storm in your retirement predictions. Since SWIO storms can't be retired, I would recommend removing those storms and putting something like "The SWIO storms, such as Amara, Bejisa, and the others, are not included because they cannot be retired". I'll also recommend spitting the storms into each of their basins (like what me and Ryan did) to reduce any clutter and confusion and make the storms slightly easier to find. Steven09876 01:38, January 25, 2014 (UTC) :::The SHem will be split into their 3 seperate basins starting next year. For the rest of this season, leave the page the way it is. Ryan1000 19:15, January 25, 2014 (UTC) ::::What I meant to say was for Andrew to split his retirement predictions into each of their basin sections (one section for South Pacific and the other for the Australian region) like what me and you did, instead of having the retirement predictions all mixed up. Even though I wasn't talking about this, I also like the idea of splitting the whole forum page into 3 basins next year. It'll certainly be much easier to navigate and find the storms on this page! Steven09876 20:25, January 26, 2014 (UTC) ---- Steven's retirement predictions: South-West Indian Ocean: * Names can't be retired here. Duh! ---- Australian Region: * Alessia: 5% - Not enough impact in Australia. * Bruce: 1% - 0.5% for impacts in Indonesia and Cocos Islands, and bonus points for being an incredibly awesome storm that reached C5 intensity without causing huge danger for landmasses. * Christine: 75% - Since Wickham called this storm one of their worst in recent memory, an unusual heat wave struck just south of the storm, and how Australia is with retirements, I'm going with a very high chance for retirement. If Lua and Rusty was retired, then Christine might leave as well. * Dylan: 15% - A weak storm who made a landfall in Australia. Since about everything that hits them has a chance of retirement, Dylan has a tiny chance as well. * Edna: 5% - Caused a little bit of Australian impacts, but since it was completely weak and did barely any impacts, retirement ain't happening. * Fletcher: 10% - It affected northern Australia, but retirement seems unlikely. Basically Alessia 2.0. * Gillian: 30% - 25% for impacts, and the other, bonus 5% is for its strange track and the unexpected stunt it performed into becoming an intense tropical cyclone after a couple weeks of life as a weakling. * Hadi: 1% - Slightly affected the Solomon Islands and Queensland, but retirement? Of course not! * Ita: ? - Still active To be continued... ---- South Pacific: * Ian: 75% - Apparently this storm was very bad for Tonga according to Ryan's percentages down below. I think it will be retired, and this storm really deserves retirement for all the damage it's done! * June: 5% - Since it was just a weak TS that didn't affect land all that much, retirement isn't happening. * Kofi: 20% - Fiji and Tonga got plenty of damage from this thing. Small chance of retirement. * Lusi: 20% - Quite a bit of damage and 3 deaths. Just like Kofi, it has a small chance of retirement. * Mike: 1% - This weakling didn't do much at all... To be continued... Steve820 01:43, January 11, 2014 (UTC) (Steven's retirement predictions were last updated at 00:45, March 27, 2014 (UTC)) ---- Ryan Grand's thoughts: Australian Region: *Alessia - 3% - Meh, even Australia wouldn't retire this. *Bruce - <1% - It did cause some impacts on a few islands out in the middle of nowhere, but what I like most is that it became a cat 5 well out to sea. Perfect storm to track. *Christine - 80% - Australia has a very generous track record of retirement, if they retired Lua and Rusty then Christine is out as well. *Dylan - 25% - Bumping it a bit high since this is Australia, but otherwise meh. *Edna - 20% - Only because of their track record...if it wasn't for that, this'd be a 0%. *Fletcher - 10% - Minor at most. *Gillian - 20% - Well this was unexpected. I never saw a storm do such strange things in the SHem before. But still, overall impacts weren't too severe. *Hadi - 0% - Eaten alive by Luci. South Pacific: *Ian - 70% - It was described as one of the worst storms in the history of a few of the Tonga islands. One island lost 8000 homes (70% of the population), and 1 person died. Likely going to be retired. *June - 15% - Damage wasn't negligible, but I don't find it retirement-worthy. *Kofi - 20% - Being generous here, overall damage in Tonga wasn't even half as bad as Ian's was. *Luci - 20% - Well, you never know with the SPac or Australia... *Mike - <5% - Never knew this one existed lol. There you have it. Ryan1000 22:05, January 13, 2014 (UTC) Spcardozo's retirements #dylan 100% #ian 100% #bruce 50% #christine 32% :Uhh, Dylan wasn't that bad, not even close. Also, Bruce stayed out to sea, so it isn't going to be retired at all even though it reached Cat. 5 intensity. And Christine should have a much higher chance of retirement than 32%, since it caused plenty of impacts in Australia and especially since any storm that causes only a little bit of impacts in that country gets retired. Ian should also be slightly lower too, since while retirement isn't extremely certain to happen, it still has a pretty high chance of happening due to its impacts. You don't understand how retirement works. Your retirement predictions are way to extreme for any of us to trust, especially due to my opinions above. Also note that the guy who wrote these retirement predictions is currently blocked, see his block log. Steven09876 05:01, February 7, 2014 (UTC) ::Yeah, I'm probably gonna live to ride again another day XD --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 05:11, February 7, 2014 (UTC)